System Dynamics

In this study, a dynamic simulation model for electric vehicle (EV) diffusion is constructed. The objective of this work is to investigate two main questions; what are the plausible diffusion patterns of electric vehicles for Istanbul under different scenarios developed considering both local and global socio-economic, governmental, technological factors and their interaction with each other? Secondly, what is the extent of the diffusion rate that can be expected in Istanbul after three decades? The model is validated by standard structure and behavior tests.

In this thesis a software for model behavior testing, validation and analysis is created. This software integrates previously developed methods on steady state behavior analysis based on traditional statistical methods and behavior classication based on pattern recognition literature, and introduces new features, functionalities and usage modes to them. It is the rst comprehensive tool that communicates with existing modeling software and performs automated analysis and evaluation. It is shown that this tool can assist the modeler/analyst in various stages during a dynamic modeling study.

This project aims to develop a simulation model in order to develop projections for the energy use in the residential sector under different scenarios related to energy prices, household behaviors and climate change. In that respect, it involves collecting data about the current state of the Turkish residential system, as well as analyzing the pace and scope of the change processes, such as urban transformation, that are currently active. Eventually, these projections will also be used to calculate potential CO2 emissions stemming from the Turkish residential sector.